Mariners at Royals
Last play · Adam Frazier strikes out swinging, catcher Cal Raleigh to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Royals0%
SEA 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 0 KC
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorge Polanco doubles (29) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Josh Naylor scores. (inning 2) — -15% Mariners
8J.P. Crawford doubles (24) on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Victor Robles scores.2–0
2Jorge Polanco doubles (29) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Josh Naylor scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








