Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Addison Barger grounds into a double play, first baseman Bob Seymour to shortstop Carson Williams to pitcher Bryan Baker. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out at 2nd. Addison Barger out at 1st.
Win probability
Rays100%
TOR 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chandler Simpson singles on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Hunter Feduccia scores. Carson Williams scores. Bob Seymour to 2nd. (inning 2) — +20% Rays
6Carson Williams homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.0–4
2Brandon Lowe singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes, deflected by second baseman Ernie Clement. Bob Seymour scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd.0–3
2Chandler Simpson singles on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Hunter Feduccia scores. Carson Williams scores. Bob Seymour to 2nd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








