Cubs at Reds
Last play · Ian Happ flies out to left fielder Austin Hays.
Win probability
Reds100%
CHC 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 4 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Austin Hays scores. (inning 6) — +31% Reds
6Elly De La Cruz homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field.4–7
6Spencer Steer homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Austin Hays scores.4–6
5TJ Friedl singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.4–4
4Spencer Steer homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
4Matt Shaw homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.4–2
3Matt McLain homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
3Ian Happ doubles (29) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Austin Hays. Nico Hoerner scores.2–1
2Dansby Swanson homers (23) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








