Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · Danny Jansen called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
MIL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 7 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Brendan Donovan scores. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd. Nolan Arenado advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by second baseman Brice Turang. (inning 5) — +20% Cardinals
5Jordan Walker singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Thomas Saggese scores.1–7
5Thomas Saggese hits a ground-rule double (15) on a line drive down the left-field line. Nolan Arenado scores.1–6
5Nolan Arenado doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Brendan Donovan scores. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd. Nolan Arenado advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by second baseman Brice Turang.1–5
3Sal Frelick homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
2Jordan Walker grounds into a double play, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Jake Bauers. Thomas Saggese scores. Pedro Pagés out at 2nd. Jordan Walker out at 1st.0–2
1Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Brendan Donovan scores. Lars Nootbaar out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Jackson Chourio to shortstop Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers to second baseman Brice Turang. Nolan Arenado to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








