Padres at White Sox
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn strikes out swinging, catcher Kyle Teel to first baseman Miguel Vargas.
Win probability
White Sox100%
SD 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 4 CWS
White Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-185 / +155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
White Sox favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Vargas homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Colson Montgomery scores. (inning 1) — +17% White Sox
6Gavin Sheets grounds out sharply, second baseman Chase Meidroth to first baseman Miguel Vargas. Ramón Laureano scores.3–4
4Will Robertson singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Edgar Quero scores. Curtis Mead to 3rd. Will Robertson to 2nd.2–4
4Curtis Mead singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Mike Tauchman scores. Edgar Quero to 2nd.2–3
4Ryan O'Hearn singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Mike Tauchman. Ramón Laureano scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.2–2
3Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Will Robertson. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.1–2
1Miguel Vargas homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Colson Montgomery scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








