Guardians at Twins
Last play · Mickey Gasper grounds out, second baseman Brayan Rocchio to first baseman Jhonkensy Noel.
Win probability
Twins0%
CLE 100%MIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 2 – 0 MIN
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Twins favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bo Naylor singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder James Outman. José Ramírez scores. Kyle Manzardo scores. (inning 8) — -39% Guardians
9Angel Martínez doubles (23) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder James Outman. Steven Kwan scores.6–2
9Steven Kwan doubles (28) on a line drive to left fielder Austin Martin. David Fry scores.5–2
8Bo Naylor singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder James Outman. José Ramírez scores. Kyle Manzardo scores.4–2
6Royce Lewis singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Angel Martínez. Luke Keaschall scores.2–2
6Brooks Lee grounds out, third baseman José Ramírez to first baseman Kyle Manzardo.2–1
1Bo Naylor singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder James Outman. Steven Kwan scores. José Ramírez scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








