Mariners at Astros
Last play · Zach Cole strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
SEA 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 0 HOU
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Victor Robles homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 7) — -17% Mariners
8Josh Naylor homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.4–0
7Victor Robles homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.3–0
4Eugenio Suárez homers (47) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
1Julio Rodríguez homers (31) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








