Red Sox at Rays
BOS11–
TB7Last play · Josh Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays0%
BOS 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. (inning 7) — -41% Red Sox
9Everson Pereira hits a grand slam (2) to left field. Tristan Gray scores. Richie Palacios scores. Bob Seymour scores.11–7
8Nathaniel Lowe hit by pitch. Masataka Yoshida scores. Romy Gonzalez to 3rd. Nate Eaton to 2nd.11–3
8Romy Gonzalez reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Tristan Gray. Jarren Duran scores. Trevor Story scores. Masataka Yoshida to 3rd.10–3
8Masataka Yoshida walks. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd. Trevor Story to 2nd.8–3
8Trevor Story reaches on a fielder's choice. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. Jarren Duran to 2nd. Fielding error by second baseman Richie Palacios.7–3
8Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Nate Eaton scores. Nathaniel Lowe to 2nd.6–3
8Nate Eaton singles on a ground ball to center fielder Everson Pereira. Romy Gonzalez scores.5–3
7Jarren Duran homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.