Blue Jays at Royals
Last play · Joey Loperfido grounds out, third baseman Adam Frazier to first baseman Jac Caglianone.
Win probability
Royals100%
TOR 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 10 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia scores. (inning 1) — +15% Royals
8John Rave singles on a line drive to left fielder Davis Schneider. Jac Caglianone scores. Michael Massey to 2nd.1–20
8Michael Massey singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Adam Frazier scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd.1–19
8Jac Caglianone singles on a line drive to right fielder Joey Loperfido. Luke Maile scores. Adam Frazier to 3rd.1–18
8Adam Frazier singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Tyler Tolbert scores. Luke Maile to 3rd.1–17
8Luke Maile doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Davis Schneider. Jonathan India scores. Randal Grichuk scores. Tyler Tolbert to 3rd.1–16
7Jac Caglianone homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Tyler Tolbert scores. Luke Maile scores.1–14
7Luke Maile singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Jonathan India scores. Tyler Tolbert to 2nd.1–11
3Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Carter Jensen scores.1–10
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








