Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Ryan Mountcastle grounds out, shortstop Anthony Volpe to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Orioles0%
NYY 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 5 – 0 BAL
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-190 / +160
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Giancarlo Stanton homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 1) — -28% Yankees
7Coby Mayo doubles (12) on a fly ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Tyler O'Neill scores.6–1
6Trent Grisham singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jeremiah Jackson. Anthony Volpe scores.6–0
5Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler O'Neill, deflected by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Cody Bellinger scores.5–0
3Aaron Judge homers (49) on a fly ball to left field.4–0
1Giancarlo Stanton homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








