Phillies at D-backs
Last play · Jake McCarthy lines out sharply to center fielder Harrison Bader.
Win probability
D-backs0%
PHI 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 2 AZ
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Castellanos homers (17) on a fly ball to left field. Alec Bohm scores. (inning 8) — -21% Phillies
9Nick Castellanos singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Brandon Marsh scores. Alec Bohm to 2nd.8–2
9Alec Bohm singles on a line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Bryce Harper scores. J.T. Realmuto scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.7–2
8Nick Castellanos homers (17) on a fly ball to left field. Alec Bohm scores.5–2
6Weston Wilson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Brandon Marsh scores.3–2
5Harrison Bader homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
2Alec Bohm doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Brandon Marsh scores.1–2
1Diamondbacks challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Blaze Alexander grounds into a force out, shortstop Bryson Stott to second baseman Weston Wilson. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno out at 2nd. Blaze Alexander to 1st.0–2
1Ketel Marte homers (26) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








