Cubs at Reds
Last play · Seiya Suzuki strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Reds100%
CHC 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 3 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Friedl homers (13) on a line drive to right field. (inning 7) — +18% Reds
8Tyler Stephenson homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Noelvi Marte scores.3–6
8Reese McGuire doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Willi Castro scores.3–4
7TJ Friedl homers (13) on a line drive to right field.2–4
5Spencer Steer homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
5Reese McGuire homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
3Will Benson singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. TJ Friedl scores. Spencer Steer to 3rd.1–2
3Spencer Steer reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Matt Shaw. Matt McLain scores. TJ Friedl to 2nd.1–1
3Michael Busch homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








