Nationals at Mets
Last play · Juan Soto called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mets0%
WSH 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 0 NYM
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+230 / -285
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile hits an inside-the-park home run (7) on a line drive to center field. Andrés Chaparro scores. (inning 11) — -44% Nationals
11Daylen Lile hits an inside-the-park home run (7) on a line drive to center field. Andrés Chaparro scores.5–3
9Juan Soto singles on a fly ball to center fielder Robert Hassell III. Jose Siri scores. Francisco Lindor to 2nd.3–3
8Mark Vientos doubles (21) on a ground ball to left fielder James Wood. Brandon Nimmo scores. Starling Marte scores.3–2
2CJ Abrams grounds out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to first baseman Pete Alonso.3–0
2Riley Adams singles on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Dylan Crews scores. Riley Adams to 3rd. Fielding error by right fielder Juan Soto.2–0
1Daylen Lile grounds into a force out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to shortstop Francisco Lindor. James Wood scores. Josh Bell out at 2nd. Daylen Lile to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








