Athletics at Pirates
Last play · Brent Rooker called out on strikes.
Win probability
Pirates100%
ATH 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 0 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 3) — +18% Pirates
3Bryan Reynolds homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
2Nick Yorke homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








