Mariners at Astros
Last play · Carlos Correa lines into a double play, right fielder Victor Robles to second baseman Jorge Polanco to shortstop J.P. Crawford. Jake Meyers out at 2nd.
Win probability
Astros0%
SEA 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 5 – 0 HOU
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremy Peña hits a grand slam (17) to left field. Yainer Diaz scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Cam Smith scores. (inning 7) — +18% Astros
7Jeremy Peña hits a grand slam (17) to left field. Yainer Diaz scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Cam Smith scores.6–4
7Jorge Polanco doubles (30) on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Eugenio Suárez scores.6–0
5Dominic Canzone singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Julio Rodríguez scores. Jorge Polanco to 3rd. Josh Naylor to 2nd.5–0
5Josh Naylor walks. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez to 3rd. Jorge Polanco to 2nd.4–0
3Cal Raleigh homers (57) on a fly ball to right center field.3–0
2Victor Robles out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Josh Naylor scores.2–0
1Eugenio Suárez doubles (27) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Julio Rodríguez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








