Red Sox at Rays
Last play · Chandler Simpson grounds out, third baseman Alex Bregman to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.
Win probability
Rays0%
BOS 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 1 TB
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Story singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. (inning 9) — -34% Red Sox
9Romy Gonzalez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Josh Lowe. Alex Bregman scores. David Hamilton to 3rd.6–3
9Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Trevor Story scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.5–3
9Trevor Story singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.4–3
7Yandy Díaz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nate Eaton. Nick Fortes scores.3–3
7Nick Fortes doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Josh Lowe scores.3–2
6Nathaniel Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Romy Gonzalez scores.3–1
5Alex Bregman singles on a line drive to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Jarren Duran to 3rd.2–1
4Jake Mangum doubles (18) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Brandon Lowe scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








