Phillies at D-backs
Last play · Harrison Bader grounds into a force out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to second baseman Ketel Marte. Bryson Stott out at 2nd.
Win probability
D-backs100%
PHI 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 2 AZ
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ildemaro Vargas singles on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. James McCann scores. (inning 6) — +19% D-backs
6Ildemaro Vargas singles on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. James McCann scores.3–4
6James McCann doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Blaze Alexander scores.3–3
4Alec Bohm homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
3Ketel Marte singles on a line drive to right fielder Max Kepler, deflected by first baseman Bryce Harper. Jake McCarthy scores.2–2
1Corbin Carroll singles on a ground ball to right fielder Max Kepler. Geraldo Perdomo scores.2–1
1J.T. Realmuto out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Alek Thomas. Kyle Schwarber scores.2–0
1Kyle Schwarber doubles (22) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Harrison Bader scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








