Blue Jays at Royals
Last play · Ernie Clement lines out to center fielder John Rave.
Win probability
Royals100%
TOR 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 2 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bobby Witt Jr. homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 4) — +19% Royals
7Daulton Varsho homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
4Vinnie Pasquantino homers (31) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
4Bobby Witt Jr. homers (23) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








