Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · Iván Herrera flies out to left fielder Jackson Chourio.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
MIL 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 2 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Jackson Chourio scores. (inning 10) — -26% Brewers
10Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to center fielder Nathan Church. Jackson Chourio scores.3–2
6Andrew Vaughn out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Caleb Durbin scores.2–2
5Brendan Donovan singles on a ground ball to right fielder Sal Frelick. Pedro Pagés scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd.1–2
4Nolan Arenado singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jake Bauers. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 2nd.1–1
2Joey Ortiz singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Jake Bauers scores. Andrew Vaughn to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








