Marlins at Rangers
Last play · Joc Pederson flies out to left fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Rangers0%
MIA 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 2 TEX
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Troy Johnston singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Helman. Otto Lopez scores. (inning 2) — -15% Marlins
9Kyle Higashioka homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
6Connor Norby homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.4–2
6Troy Johnston homers (4) on a line drive to right field.3–2
4Eric Wagaman out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Connor Norby scores.2–2
3Rowdy Tellez singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Joc Pederson scores. Alejandro Osuna to 3rd. Fielding error by left fielder Heriberto Hernández.1–2
3Alejandro Osuna singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Ezequiel Duran scores. Joc Pederson to 3rd.1–1
2Troy Johnston singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Helman. Otto Lopez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








