Yankees at Orioles
Last play · Ryan Mountcastle strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
NYY 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 1 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice hits a grand slam (24) to right center field. Trent Grisham scores. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 10) — -53% Yankees
10Anthony Volpe singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Carlson. José Caballero scores. Paul Goldschmidt to 2nd.7–1
10Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (31) on a fly ball to right field.6–1
10Ben Rice hits a grand slam (24) to right center field. Trent Grisham scores. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores.5–1
6Ben Rice singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Trent Grisham scores. Aaron Judge to 2nd.1–1
5Samuel Basallo homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








