Cubs at Reds
Last play · Pete Crow-Armstrong called out on strikes.
Win probability
Reds100%
CHC 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 1 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt McLain called out on strikes. (inning 8) — +12% Reds
3Gavin Lux doubles (26) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Matt McLain scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








