Nationals at Mets
Last play · Luis Torrens lines out to shortstop Nasim Nuñez.
Win probability
Mets0%
WSH 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 3 – 1 NYM
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+240 / -300
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Lindor homers (28) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — +21% Mets
6Francisco Lindor homers (28) on a fly ball to right field.3–2
3Cedric Mullins singles on a fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Luis Torrens scores.3–1
2Nasim Nuñez homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Jorge Alfaro scores.3–0
2Jorge Alfaro doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Daylen Lile scores. Throwing error by shortstop Francisco Lindor.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








