Red Sox at Rays
Last play · Masataka Yoshida grounds out to first baseman Tristan Gray.
Win probability
Rays100%
BOS 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christopher Morel doubles (15) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd. (inning 1) — +17% Rays
8Jake Mangum out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Brandon Lowe scores. Christopher Morel to 3rd.3–7
8Christopher Morel singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Yandy Díaz scores. Junior Caminero scores. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.3–6
7Romy Gonzalez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Everson Pereira. Trevor Story scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.3–4
7Alex Bregman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Everson Pereira. Jarren Duran scores. Trevor Story to 2nd.2–4
6Brandon Lowe homers (30) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
4Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (31) on a line drive to right fielder Everson Pereira. Nathaniel Lowe scores.1–3
1Nick Fortes reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Alex Bregman. Junior Caminero scores. Christopher Morel to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman Alex Bregman.0–3
1Christopher Morel doubles (15) on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Chandler Simpson scores. Yandy Díaz scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








