Padres at White Sox
Last play · Miguel Vargas strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
White Sox0%
SD 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 3 – 0 CWS
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-180 / +150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
White Sox favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew Benintendi walks. Chase Meidroth scores. Colson Montgomery to 3rd. Miguel Vargas to 2nd. (inning 7) — +16% White Sox
7Andrew Benintendi walks. Chase Meidroth scores. Colson Montgomery to 3rd. Miguel Vargas to 2nd.3–2
7Miguel Vargas walks. Dominic Fletcher scores. Chase Meidroth to 3rd. Colson Montgomery to 2nd.3–1
3Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field.3–0
2Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to center fielder Brooks Baldwin. Gavin Sheets scores.2–0
2Ryan O'Hearn called out on strikes.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








