Brewers at Cardinals
Last play · Isaac Collins flies out to left fielder Nathan Church.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
MIL 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 4 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. Victor Scott II scores. (inning 3) — +23% Cardinals
8José Fermín walks. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd. Jordan Walker to 2nd.1–5
5Jackson Chourio out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Joey Ortiz scores.1–4
4José Fermín doubles (3) on a fly ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Jordan Walker scores. Nolan Gorman scores.0–4
3Iván Herrera homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. Victor Scott II scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








