Phillies at D-backs
Last play · Nick Castellanos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs100%
PHI 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 6 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ketel Marte singles on a ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Tim Tawa scores. Jordan Lawlar scores. Jorge Barrosa to 2nd. (inning 2) — +16% D-backs
8Gabriel Moreno grounds out, shortstop Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper. Corbin Carroll scores.2–9
8Weston Wilson walks. Alec Bohm scores. Nick Castellanos to 3rd. Bryson Stott to 2nd.2–8
8Nick Castellanos singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tim Tawa. J.T. Realmuto scores. Alec Bohm to 2nd.1–8
7Tim Tawa homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.0–8
6Jorge Barrosa homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.0–7
2Corbin Carroll homers (31) on a fly ball to right center field. Jorge Barrosa scores. Ketel Marte scores.0–6
2Ketel Marte singles on a ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader. Tim Tawa scores. Jordan Lawlar scores. Jorge Barrosa to 2nd.0–3
1Corbin Carroll grounds into a force out, first baseman Bryce Harper to shortstop Bryson Stott. Ketel Marte scores. Geraldo Perdomo out at 2nd. Corbin Carroll to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








