Blue Jays at Royals
Last play · Vinnie Pasquantino grounds out, second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Royals0%
TOR 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 6 – 4 KC
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carter Jensen singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia scores. Adam Frazier to 3rd. (inning 4) — +21% Royals
8Andrés Giménez triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Ernie Clement scores.8–5
8Ernie Clement singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randal Grichuk. Myles Straw scores.7–5
6Randal Grichuk singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Jac Caglianone scores.6–5
5Salvador Perez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia to 2nd.6–4
5Maikel Garcia singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 2nd.6–3
5Addison Barger doubles (31) on a fly ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.6–2
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (34) on a sharp line drive to center fielder John Rave. Tyler Heineman scores. Daulton Varsho scores.5–2
4Carter Jensen singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Maikel Garcia scores. Adam Frazier to 3rd.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








