Mariners at Astros
Last play · Jose Altuve called out on strikes.
Win probability
Astros0%
SEA 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 7 – 1 HOU
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.P. Crawford hits a grand slam (12) to right field. Eugenio Suárez scores. Dominic Canzone scores. Victor Robles scores. (inning 2) — -27% Mariners
8Isaac Paredes homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field.7–3
7Jose Altuve singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Zach Cole scores. Mauricio Dubón to 3rd.7–2
3Zach Cole homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.7–1
2Cal Raleigh homers (58) on a line drive to right field. Randy Arozarena scores.7–0
2J.P. Crawford hits a grand slam (12) to right field. Eugenio Suárez scores. Dominic Canzone scores. Victor Robles scores.5–0
2Victor Robles walks. Jorge Polanco scores. Eugenio Suárez to 3rd. Dominic Canzone to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








