Pirates at Reds
Last play · Matt McLain grounds into a double play, third baseman Jared Triolo to second baseman Nick Yorke to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Elly De La Cruz out at 2nd. Matt McLain out at 1st.
Win probability
Reds0%
PIT 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 2 CIN
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elly De La Cruz homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Steer scores. (inning 2) — +16% Reds
2Elly De La Cruz homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Steer scores.4–2
2Oneil Cruz homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Alexander Canario scores.4–0
2Alexander Canario doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Will Benson. Nick Yorke scores.2–0
2Nick Yorke singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder TJ Friedl. Jack Suwinski scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








