Rays at Orioles
Last play · Josh Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
TB 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 4 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler O'Neill grounds out, shortstop Carson Williams to first baseman Bob Seymour. Jordan Westburg scores. (inning 1) — +9% Orioles
6Colton Cowser homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Samuel Basallo scores.0–6
5Jordan Westburg out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Colton Cowser scores. Jackson Holliday to 2nd.0–4
3Gunnar Henderson singles on a line drive to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Coby Mayo scores.0–3
1Tyler O'Neill grounds out, shortstop Carson Williams to first baseman Bob Seymour. Jordan Westburg scores.0–2
1Gunnar Henderson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake Mangum. Jackson Holliday scores. Jordan Westburg to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








