Nationals at Braves
WSH5–
ATL11Last play · Riley Adams pops out to second baseman Nick Allen.
Win probability
Braves100%
WSH 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 5 – 8 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+220 / -275
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Ozzie Albies scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 3rd. (inning 3) — +17% Braves
6Nick Allen singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Jurickson Profar scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 2nd.5–11
6Jurickson Profar singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews, deflected by first baseman Andrés Chaparro. Michael Harris II scores.5–10
6Nacho Alvarez Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dylan Crews. Marcell Ozuna scores.5–9
5Andrés Chaparro singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Brady House scores. Robert Hassell III scores. Nasim Nuñez scores. Andrés Chaparro to 2nd.5–8
4Michael Harris II grounds into a force out, second baseman Paul DeJong to shortstop Nasim Nuñez. Drake Baldwin scores. Marcell Ozuna out at 2nd. Michael Harris II to 1st.2–8
4Dylan Crews homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.2–7
3Ronald Acuña Jr. walks. Marcell Ozuna scores. Michael Harris II to 3rd. Jurickson Profar to 2nd.1–7
3Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Drake Baldwin scores. Marcell Ozuna to 3rd.1–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.