Cardinals at Giants
Last play · Heliot Ramos grounds out, second baseman José Fermín to first baseman Alec Burleson.
Win probability
Giants0%
STL 100%SF 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 6 – 5 SF
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Giants favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Lars Nootbaar scores. (inning 5) — -25% Cardinals
5Rafael Devers homers (33) on a fly ball to left center field.6–5
5Jordan Walker grounds into a force out, shortstop Willy Adames to second baseman Casey Schmitt. Nolan Arenado scores. Pedro Pagés out at 2nd. Jordan Walker to 1st.6–4
5Pedro Pagés reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Casey Schmitt. Alec Burleson scores. Nolan Arenado to 3rd. Fielding error by second baseman Casey Schmitt.5–4
5Iván Herrera homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Lars Nootbaar scores.4–4
4Heliot Ramos singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Casey Schmitt scores. Patrick Bailey scores. Heliot Ramos out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Jordan Walker to first baseman Alec Burleson to second baseman José Fermín. Drew Gilbert to 3rd.2–4
4Patrick Bailey singles on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Matt Chapman scores. Casey Schmitt to 3rd.2–2
4José Fermín doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Jordan Walker scores.2–1
3Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jerar Encarnacion. José Fermín scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








