Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · George Springer flies out to left fielder Jarren Duran.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
BOS 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Narváez doubles (27) on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Wilyer Abreu scores. (inning 6) — -24% Red Sox
6Carlos Narváez doubles (27) on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.4–1
6Nathaniel Lowe singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Romy Gonzalez scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.2–1
4Andrés Giménez grounds into a force out, shortstop Trevor Story to second baseman Romy Gonzalez. Nathan Lukes scores. Davis Schneider out at 2nd. Andrés Giménez to 1st.1–1
2Nathaniel Lowe singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Masataka Yoshida scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








