Marlins at Phillies
Last play · Bryson Stott grounds out, pitcher Josh Simpson to first baseman Eric Wagaman.
Win probability
Phillies0%
MIA 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 3 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+170 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Castellanos singles on a line drive to left fielder Troy Johnston. Garrett Stubbs scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd. (inning 10) — +42% Phillies
11Xavier Edwards out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Connor Norby scores.6–5
10Nick Castellanos singles on a line drive to left fielder Troy Johnston. Garrett Stubbs scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd.5–5
10Alec Bohm singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Bryson Stott scores. Garrett Stubbs to 2nd.5–4
10Jakob Marsee grounds into a force out, third baseman Alec Bohm to second baseman Weston Wilson. Troy Johnston scores. Liam Hicks out at 2nd. Jakob Marsee to 1st.5–3
10Liam Hicks singles on a ground ball to right fielder Max Kepler. Griffin Conine scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd.4–3
9Heriberto Hernández homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
8Liam Hicks singles on a line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Otto Lopez scores. Throwing error by center fielder Harrison Bader.2–3
8Griffin Conine homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








