Brewers at Padres
Last play · Caleb Durbin grounds out softly, pitcher Yuki Matsui to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan O'Hearn hits a grand slam (17) to right field. Luis Arraez scores. Gavin Sheets scores. Ramón Laureano scores. (inning 1) — +23% Padres
8Jose Iglesias homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.0–7
2Luis Arraez homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Mason McCoy scores.0–6
1Ryan O'Hearn hits a grand slam (17) to right field. Luis Arraez scores. Gavin Sheets scores. Ramón Laureano scores.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








