Rockies at Mariners
Last play · Kyle Karros strikes out swinging, catcher Cal Raleigh to first baseman Josh Naylor.
Win probability
Mariners100%
COL 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 1 – 1 SEA
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+250 / -310
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Naylor doubles (28) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Luke Raley scores. J.P. Crawford scores. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 8) — +73% Mariners
8Josh Naylor doubles (28) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Luke Raley scores. J.P. Crawford scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.3–4
6Ezequiel Tovar singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Mickey Moniak scores. Blaine Crim scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 2nd.3–1
5Dominic Canzone homers (11) on a line drive to right field.1–1
2Kyle Karros singles on a ground ball to second baseman Jorge Polanco. Jordan Beck scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








