Mets at Cubs
Last play · Dansby Swanson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs0%
NYM 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 6 – 6 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Alvarez homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Luisangel Acuña scores. (inning 8) — -39% Mets
8Francisco Alvarez homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Luisangel Acuña scores.9–7
6Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Nico Hoerner scores. Ian Happ to 2nd.7–7
6Francisco Lindor singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jeff McNeil scores. Francisco Alvarez to 2nd.7–6
5Brandon Nimmo homers (25) on a fly ball to right field. Juan Soto scores. Pete Alonso scores.6–6
5Pete Alonso singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Francisco Alvarez scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.3–6
5Francisco Lindor grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Starling Marte scores. Francisco Alvarez to 3rd.2–6
4Ian Happ reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Jeff McNeil. Nico Hoerner scores.1–6
2Ian Happ doubles (30) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Starling Marte. Matt Shaw scores. Nico Hoerner scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








