Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Alejandro Kirk lines out sharply, right fielder Wilyer Abreu to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
BOS 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 4 – 0 TOR
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Romy Gonzalez singles on a line drive to left fielder George Springer. Alex Bregman scores. Masataka Yoshida scores. (inning 1) — -16% Red Sox
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.7–1
8Carlos Narváez homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Romy Gonzalez scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.7–0
5Masataka Yoshida homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.4–0
1Romy Gonzalez singles on a line drive to left fielder George Springer. Alex Bregman scores. Masataka Yoshida scores.3–0
1Masataka Yoshida doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Myles Straw. Trevor Story scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








