Mets at Cubs
Last play · Brandon Nimmo grounds out, third baseman Matt Shaw to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
NYM 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 8 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ doubles (31) on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Matt Shaw scores. Michael Busch scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. (inning 3) — +23% Cubs
8Juan Soto homers (43) on a fly ball to center field.3–10
6Michael Busch homers (31) on a fly ball to right center field. Matt Shaw scores.2–10
5Dansby Swanson grounds out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to first baseman Pete Alonso.2–8
5Pete Crow-Armstrong reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Mark Vientos. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 2nd.2–7
5Francisco Alvarez homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Mark Vientos scores.2–6
4Matt Shaw homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.0–6
3Pete Crow-Armstrong out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Juan Soto. Moisés Ballesteros scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd.0–5
3Seiya Suzuki doubles (31) on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Ian Happ scores. Moisés Ballesteros to 3rd.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








