Pirates at Reds
Last play · Noelvi Marte grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Jared Triolo. Will Benson out at 3rd.
Win probability
Reds0%
PIT 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 0 CIN
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 56.6% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Horwitz doubles (25) on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 11) — -44% Pirates
11Spencer Horwitz doubles (25) on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Bryan Reynolds scores.4–3
10Gavin Lux out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jack Suwinski. TJ Friedl scores.3–3
10Jack Suwinski hits a ground-rule double (7) on a line drive to center field. Nick Yorke scores.3–2
9Tyler Stephenson homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
8Noelvi Marte hits an inside-the-park home run (14) on a fly ball to left-center field.2–1
6Spencer Horwitz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Will Benson. Bryan Reynolds scores. Spencer Horwitz to 2nd.2–0
4Spencer Horwitz doubles (24) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Bryan Reynolds scores. Spencer Horwitz out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Noelvi Marte to first baseman Spencer Steer to third baseman Sal Stewart.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








