Marlins at Phillies
Last play · Troy Johnston flies out to left fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIA 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 6 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eric Wagaman singles on a line drive to left fielder Weston Wilson. Connor Norby scores. (inning 2) — -15% Marlins
7Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Edmundo Sosa homers (10) on a line drive to left field.1–11
7Otto Kemp homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Nick Castellanos scores.1–10
7Alec Bohm homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.1–8
7Kyle Schwarber homers (56) on a fly ball to right center field.1–7
5Edmundo Sosa homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Alec Bohm scores. Otto Kemp scores.1–6
4Bryson Stott homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
4Edmundo Sosa homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
3Kyle Schwarber homers (55) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








