Brewers at Padres
Last play · Jake Cronenworth strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
MIL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 0 SD
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brice Turang singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jackson Chourio scores. (inning 7) — -19% Brewers
9Danny Jansen homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
7Brice Turang singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jackson Chourio scores.2–1
6Jackson Merrill homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
5Andrew Vaughn doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Brice Turang scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








