Twins at Rangers
Last play · Ryan Jeffers grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Rowdy Tellez.
Win probability
Rangers100%
MIN 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 1 TEX
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Billy McKinney singles on a line drive to left fielder Kody Clemens. Ezequiel Duran scores. Billy McKinney to 2nd. (inning 7) — +22% Rangers
8Royce Lewis singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Helman. Edouard Julien scores.2–4
7Josh Jung flies out to center fielder James Outman.1–4
7Michael Helman grounds out, third baseman Royce Lewis to first baseman Edouard Julien.1–3
7Billy McKinney singles on a line drive to left fielder Kody Clemens. Ezequiel Duran scores. Billy McKinney to 2nd.1–2
4Josh Smith homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1Byron Buxton homers (32) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








