Pirates at Reds
Last play · Andrew McCutchen flies out to right fielder Noelvi Marte.
Win probability
Reds100%
PIT 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Noelvi Marte singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alexander Canario. TJ Friedl scores. Noelvi Marte to 2nd. Noelvi Marte advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by shortstop Nick Gonzales. (inning 5) — +15% Reds
8Nick Yorke grounds out, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes to first baseman Spencer Steer. Spencer Horwitz scores.1–2
5Gavin Lux singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Noelvi Marte scores.0–2
5Noelvi Marte singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alexander Canario. TJ Friedl scores. Noelvi Marte to 2nd. Noelvi Marte advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by shortstop Nick Gonzales.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








