Marlins at Phillies
Last play · Graham Pauley lines out to center fielder Harrison Bader.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIA 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 1 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper strikes out swinging. (inning 8) — +12% Phillies
1Alec Bohm grounds out, third baseman Connor Norby to first baseman Graham Pauley. Harrison Bader scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








