Mets at Cubs
Last play · Dansby Swanson grounds into a double play, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Luisangel Acuña to first baseman Pete Alonso. Carson Kelly out at 2nd. Dansby Swanson out at 1st.
Win probability
Cubs0%
NYM 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 6 – 2 CHC
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. Brandon Nimmo scores. Luis Torrens scores. (inning 4) — -14% Mets
6Seiya Suzuki homers (29) on a fly ball to left center field. Ian Happ scores. Moisés Ballesteros scores.8–5
6Tyrone Taylor doubles (18) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brandon Nimmo scores. Brett Baty scores.8–2
5Dansby Swanson homers (24) on a fly ball to right center field.6–2
4Seiya Suzuki homers (28) on a fly ball to left center field.6–1
4Brett Baty homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. Brandon Nimmo scores. Luis Torrens scores.6–0
3Francisco Lindor homers (30) on a fly ball to left field.3–0
1Brandon Nimmo singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Pete Alonso scores.2–0
1Cubs challenged (stadium boundary call), call on the field was upheld: Mark Vientos pops out to shortstop Dansby Swanson in foul territory. Francisco Lindor scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








