Twins at Rangers
Last play · Umpire reviewed (trap play), call on the field was upheld: Cody Freeman flies out to right fielder James Outman.
Win probability
Rangers0%
MIN 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 0 TEX
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Byron Buxton homers (34) on a fly ball to center field. Ryan Fitzgerald scores. Christian Vázquez scores. (inning 8) — -22% Twins
8Byron Buxton homers (34) on a fly ball to center field. Ryan Fitzgerald scores. Christian Vázquez scores.4–0
1Byron Buxton homers (33) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








