Tigers at Red Sox
Last play · Ceddanne Rafaela triples (4) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Romy Gonzalez scores.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
DET 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 3 – 1 BOS
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Nate Eaton scores. (inning 8) — +32% Red Sox
9Ceddanne Rafaela triples (4) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Romy Gonzalez scores.3–4
8Jarren Duran singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Nate Eaton scores.3–3
7Nathaniel Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Parker Meadows. Masataka Yoshida scores.3–2
4Masataka Yoshida singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Parker Meadows. Alex Bregman scores.3–1
4Jahmai Jones doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Dillon Dingler scores. Parker Meadows scores. Javier Báez to 3rd.3–0
4Javier Báez singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Andy Ibáñez scores. Dillon Dingler to 3rd. Parker Meadows to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








