Pirates at Braves
Last play · Ronald Acuña Jr. pops out to first baseman Spencer Horwitz in foul territory.
Win probability
Braves0%
PIT 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 1 ATL
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tommy Pham homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Spencer Horwitz scores. (inning 2) — -25% Pirates
9Spencer Horwitz homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Nick Gonzales scores. Andrew McCutchen scores.9–3
9Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nick Allen. Jared Triolo scores. Throwing error by second baseman Nick Allen.6–3
7Drake Baldwin doubles (17) on a line drive to center fielder Jack Suwinski. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.5–3
7Spencer Horwitz homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.5–2
6Michael Harris II homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.4–2
2Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Henry Davis scores.4–1
2Henry Davis singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Nick Yorke scores.3–1
2Tommy Pham homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Spencer Horwitz scores.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








